Gold's Century Losing Streak as Bitcoin Surges
What to Know
- Gold posted its worst 10-consecutive-day losing streak since February 1920, falling as much as 27% from its all-time high
- Bitcoin is holding above $70,000, pushing the bitcoin-to-gold ratio to just below 16 ounces per BTC
- Bitcoin ETF inflows hit roughly $2.5 billion this month, while gold ETFs bled billions in outflows over the same period
- ByteTree's Charlie Morris sees the ratio potentially breaking above 40 ounces in the coming months or years
Bitcoin is once again making gold look tired. As the yellow metal grinds through its worst losing streak in over a century — ten straight days of declines not seen since February 1920, according to Bloomberg analyst Katie Greifeld — bitcoin is quietly holding its ground above $70,000, pushing the long-watched bitcoin-to-gold ratio to just under 16 ounces per coin. Two assets, supposedly similar in purpose, telling completely opposite stories right now.
Gold's Historic Slide: What Happened?
Ten consecutive losing sessions. That's what bitcoin has been watching from across the ring while gold took punch after punch. The yellow metal dropped as much as 27% from its January all-time high before finding support at $4,090 — right on the 200-day moving average, a technical level traders watch closely as a last line of defense for longer-term trends.
The good news for gold bulls: it bounced. A roughly 2% rebound over the past 24 hours may well mark the end of the streak. But the damage is done. Since the Middle East conflict escalated at the end of February, gold is still down approximately 12% from where it was then. A bounce off a floor isn't the same as a recovery.
To be clear about the scale here — the last time gold fell ten sessions in a row was 1920. That's not a typo. This isn't a normal correction. Something shifted in the macro narrative around gold, and the flows tell that story just as loudly as the price charts.
Bitcoin Holds While Gold Bleeds
The contrast is hard to ignore. While gold ETF outflows have been relentless — Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) both saw billions in outflows over the past week — bitcoin-backed products moved in the opposite direction entirely.
Bitcoin ETF inflows came in around $2.5 billion this month alone. Year-to-date net outflows sit at just about $140 million — a remarkably thin negative number considering bitcoin itself is down roughly 20% in that same window. Investors are accumulating through the dip rather than running from it. That's a fundamentally different behavior than what gold ETF holders are doing right now.
Balchunas himself was quick to note something that gets lost in the noise: bitcoin and gold aren't actually inversely correlated. They're largely uncorrelated. This isn't a rotation trade where every dollar leaving gold goes into bitcoin. The stories are separate — which makes bitcoin's relative strength here even more interesting, because it isn't just a beneficiary of gold's pain. It's holding on its own merits. You can also see this divergence reflected in broader capital rotation patterns that have been building since early this year.
What Does the Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Tell Us?
The bitcoin-to-gold ratio is one of those metrics that sounds niche until you watch it for a few years. Right now it sits just below 16 ounces — meaning one bitcoin buys roughly 16 ounces of gold. That ratio bottomed near 12 ounces just before the Middle East conflict intensified in late February. From that low, the ratio has climbed approximately 30%, with bitcoin doing the outperforming.
Charlie Morris, chief investment officer at ByteTree, framed it with a bit of perspective that hits differently when you see the numbers laid out:
I remember the excitement when 1 BTC first surpassed one ounce of gold in March 2017. Since then, it has consistently built higher lows, reaching 2.7 oz in 2019, 3.4 oz during the 2020 pandemic crash, 9.1 oz after the FTX collapse, and 12.4 oz in February this year. Now, one BTC is worth 16 ounces of gold. With gold appearing exhausted, we could reasonably expect a new all time high above 40 ounces in the coming months or years.
— Charlie Morris, CIO, ByteTree
Does Bitcoin Always Follow Gold's Lead?
Historically, the pattern has gone like this: gold rallies first, bitcoin lags, then bitcoin catches up and blows past it. It happened after the 2020 pandemic crash — gold got there first, bitcoin eventually ran circles around it. It happened after the FTX collapse in late 2022. The ratio chart is basically a ledger of bitcoin consistently building on each previous floor.
If that cycle is repeating now — gold exhausted after a major run, bitcoin consolidating — then the setup Morris describes isn't just optimism. It has historical backing. The ratio broke above 9 oz coming out of the FTX lows, then pushed to 12.4 oz by February 2026. A move above 40 oz from here would be a massive structural shift, but the direction of travel hasn't reversed yet.
What's worth watching: whether bitcoin's recent bounce momentum persists as gold tries to stabilize. If gold's 10-day streak is genuinely over and both assets recover, the ratio might compress near-term. But if gold struggles to reclaim ground while bitcoin continues absorbing ETF demand, that 16 oz floor could start looking like the next long-term base — much like 12.4 oz did just weeks ago.
Gold has survived plenty of death-knell moments. But a 10-day streak not seen in 106 years while bitcoin holds firm above $70,000? That's not noise. That's a signal about where institutional patience currently sits — and it doesn't seem to be sitting with the yellow metal.
Bitcoin vs Gold in a Crisis: Which Asset Wins?
The geopolitical volatility thesis for gold hasn't exactly played out. Gold caught a bid when Middle East tensions rose at the end of February, but then gave it all back and then some — a 12% decline from those peaks. Bitcoin, by contrast, absorbed the same geopolitical backdrop without collapsing. Down from its highs, yes, but holding structure.
This is exactly the kind of environment — bitcoin vs gold in global turmoil — where the narrative around digital gold gets tested. And so far in March 2026, bitcoin is passing the test better than the original.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is gold falling so much in 2026?
Gold entered a 10-consecutive-day losing streak in March 2026 — its worst run since February 1920 — dropping as much as 27% from its January all-time high to around $4,090. A combination of Middle East conflict de-escalation expectations, strong dollar pressure, and ETF outflows drove the selloff, though a 2% rebound may signal the streak has ended.
What is the bitcoin-to-gold ratio right now?
As of late March 2026, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio sits just below 16 ounces — meaning one bitcoin buys roughly 16 ounces of gold. The ratio bottomed near 12 ounces before the Middle East conflict escalation in February and has risen approximately 30% since then, with bitcoin outperforming gold over that period.
Are bitcoin ETFs gaining or losing money in 2026?
Bitcoin ETFs are holding up well despite price weakness. Inflows reached roughly $2.5 billion in March 2026 alone, with year-to-date net outflows of only about $140 million — a thin negative despite bitcoin being down around 20% year-to-date. Gold ETFs including GLD and IAU saw billions in outflows over the same week.
Can the bitcoin-to-gold ratio reach 40 ounces?
ByteTree CIO Charlie Morris thinks it's plausible. He points to the ratio's history of building higher lows — 2.7 oz in 2019, 3.4 oz in the 2020 crash, 9.1 oz post-FTX, 12.4 oz in February 2026 — and argues that with gold appearing exhausted, a new all-time high above 40 ounces is a reasonable expectation over the coming months or years.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Every investment and trading decision involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.
Topics
bitcoin-to-gold ratiobitcoingold losing streakbitcoin ETF inflowsSPDR Gold Trustdigital goldMilan Torres
Senior Analyst
Milan covers Bitcoin markets, macro trends, and institutional crypto adoption with a focus on data-driven analysis.
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